For an England supporter, this has been a very strange Ashes build-up. Usually, as soon as our touring squad gets off the plane, we’ve already written off our chances. This time, everyone bar the bookies thinks England will win. Even the Australians – not explicitly, of course, but their gibing and goading has revealed a defensive, nervous, Antipodean state of mind.
By everyone, I mean the glib pundits and former players. We, the supporters, know differently. We have been here before. Yes, England have the momentum. Yes, Australia are looking ragged. And yes, it’s obviously our best chance for a generation. But from sheer wretched experience, we still expect to wake up tomorrow morning to find England have been bowled out for 89. The dream over before it had even begun. A three-quarters full champagne bottle standing flat and sour on the mantelpiece.
Cut an England cricket fan, and he bleeds pessimism. On most Ashes tours, we lose all the warm-up matches and conclude: we’re going to lose. This time, we’ve won them, and conclude: we’re still going to lose. Personally, I can’t quite shake off the sense that all the optimism and bullishness might have hexed our chances. The cricketing gods take unkindly to English hubris.
In a way, it’s easier when England have no chance. A savage defeat may be painful, but at least it’s over and done with quickly. Far more tortuous is a tight series which we take a very long time to lose. At least when we’re terrible, there is no uncertainty. But this time, we must endure something far more agonising: expectation. We know that England can easily, and probably should, win. And it’s unbearable. As John Cleese’s character says in the film Clockwise: “It’s not the despair. I can take the despair. It’s the hope I can’t stand.”
Maxie Allen
Odd thing is, as Michael Vaughan says in today’s Telegraph, whoever wins the first Test will probably win the series. Very unlikely to win without batting first, so essentially the entire Ashes may hinge on who wins the toss. The greatest sporting contest in the world settle in under five seconds with the toss of a coin.
The toss at Sydney is also ridiculously important. Whoever wins the toss in the 5th test will win the match. It’s almost farcical.
I can see England being outplayed in the series, but snatching a 2-2 result at the death and retaining the Ashes. If we can win the toss in Sydney, Swann should bowl us to victory on a 5th day bunsen.
It’ll be over by then. If England get on top in the first Test, I think Aus will start falling apart. There’s a lot of dissent in Australia already – calls for Ponting to go, players to be replaced, even Warne to be recalled.
If Aus get on top, I think they’ll get all their confidence and momentum back and start steamrollering us.
Anyway, we’ll find out soon….