Foregone conclusion? I don’t think so – day four at Trent Bridge

Andrew Strauss has been a great addition to the Sky commentary team. But like many of us he made one bad error of judgement at the start of day four: he said England already had enough runs when the lead went past 250. Wrong! We really could’ve done with another one hundred runs in the end. As it happened, we got another sixty. Game on.

After Watson and Rogers’ excellent start, it looked almost inevitable that Australia would chase the necessary 311 for victory. Then we took a couple of wickets and 311 looked a million miles away again. Enter Michael Clarke and the unfairly maligned Steve Smith, Australia’s answer to Danny Alexander (the ‘ginger rodent’). Suddenly batting looked like a piece of cake again, until three late wickets swung things back in England’s favour. Like all great Ashes test matches, this game has oscillated as wildly as a Mitchell Johnson bowling spell.

Entering day five the simple equation is this: the Aussies need another 136 for victory with four wickets left. Normally you’d fancy the bowling side to wrap things up fairly quickly, but there’s one big caveat: in this observer’s opinion, Australia have the best tail in the modern history of test cricket.

I’m not just talking about Ashton Agar here; James Pattinson and Mitchell Starc are very handly players. It’s a bit like England having Broad and Swann at ten and eleven. The idea of Pattinson coming in last is particularly insane; he’d be an eight in most test teams. When you take this into consideration, another 136 is most definitely on the cards. England might be favourites, but it’s only by a whisker.

The key to the game could well be the new ball, which will be due in half an hour or so. Should England take it? On this deteriorating pitch with a soft cricket ball, 136 is worth about 180; it’s incredibly difficult to score (especially off the spinners). The new ball, however, has proved much easier to score off. Agar and Haddin will love that.

If it reverse swings in the morning, I’d be tempted to keep going with the old nut, and save the new cherry as a last throw of the dice. Yes, the bowlers might get more inconsistent bounce with a harder ball, but it might produce a flurry of runs. Australia only need one decent partnership and they’ll be favourites again.

I sense that whoever wins this game will win the series. Today is that big. I can hardly watch.

James Morgan