A home World Cup is always a super occasion. The last time it happened I was actually travelling around Australia. We’d just endured another Ashes defeat, and I decided to come home after a few months specifically to catch the end of the tournament. Unfortunately England got knocked out before I flew into Heathrow. I shouldn’t have been surprised.
Back then we had a few months to recover from our Ashes trauma before the action began. This time, however, there’s virtually no time at all between the World Cup and the pinnacle of red ball cricket in our country. The World Cup final is on 14th July. The Ashes starts on 1st August. That means there’s only two and a half weeks between the two main events of the summer.
This schedule really grinds my gears to be honest. How are our players going to successfully transition from white ball mode to red ball mode in such a short space of time? It’s going to be absolutely shocking preparation. The only consolation is that Australia shouldn’t have long to prepare either.
Because I’m concerned that the Ashes probably won’t get the attention they deserve this year, I’ve decided to write a quick preview now, just to keep test series (the proper cricket!) at the forefront our our minds. Most cricket media outlets are focusing on the IPL and the Jos Buttler mankad controversy right now. Speaking of which, what the hell was Ravi Ashwin trying to prove? It’s not like Jos was creeping out of his crease, backing up too far, and seeking an unfair advantage. I really like Ashwin as a cricketer so I was really disappointed with his ‘tactic’.
It’s a shame that the Ashes has to share the summer with the World Cup because I actually think it could be the most interesting tussle between England and Australia for some time. The series should be really close and I can’t decide who I fancy. This isn’t like all the home Ashes series since 2009 when England were significant favourites. A quick perusal of BetSafe reveals that the teams are quite close – although England are slightly favoured with the bookies at this point.
They often say that flawed teams make for exciting cricket. And that’s exactly what we’ll have this summer. Both teams have good bowling attacks but extremely flakey batting line-ups. I wouldn’t be surprised to see quite a few batting collapses and one or two tests finishing inside 3 days.
Overall, however, I do think Australia have a slight edge. Why? Because I think their tail-enders are slightly more likely to dig their team out of a hole. This might sound a little upside down, as England’s tail have frequently ridden to the rescue in recent times, but this was generally against less than stellar opposition. I think it will be different against Australia’s ferocious pacemen.
It’s one thing for tail-enders to score useful runs against medium-fast bowling and orthodox spinners, when there’s no threat of physical danger, but it’s a different story when you’ve got bowlers operating at 90mph. Just look at the way Mitchell Johnson used to deal with the likes of Graeme Swann and Stuart Broad. These guys used to score rather useful runs against other teams. But Australia’s pacemen blew them away. England were basically all out once we reached six down. And it might be the same again.
Australia’s tail, on the other hand, are far more likely to score runs against Broad, Anderson (and Moeen Ali for that matter). England’s seamers are obviously very skilful bowlers, but sometimes their subtle variations are lost on slogging tail-enders who aren’t quite good enough to get an edge. I’ve lost count of the number times that England have been well on top but then struggled to take the final two or three wickets. This is one of the reasons why England should consider picking either Mark Wood or Jofra Archer (or possibly both). We might have to fight fire with fire at some point.
The top-order batting looks pretty similar in standard to be honest, although again I think Australia have a slight edge with the return of dumb and dumber. At least Australia will have one quality opener in David Warner, and an established test No.3 in Khawaja. Heaven knows who’s going to bat in England’s top 3 at this point. We’ll probably have Rory Burns, who remains unproven, plus a couple of random guys playing for their places. Will it be Keaton Jennings? I sincerely hope not. Will it be Joe Denly? Although there’s aspects of his game I like I predict he’ll become a forgotten man pretty quickly. The shortage of quality alternatives is quite alarming really.
At least England should have an advantage in the middle-order though. Buttler, Bairstow and Stokes are better players than Tim Paine and any combination of Travis Head, Marnus Labuschagne, and Kurtis Patterson. In fact, I wouldn’t be surprised to see Shaun or Mitch Marsh back in the team instead of these guys. The Aussies newcomers might have scored some runs at home against Sri Lanka, but these were essentially Gary Ballance style buffet runs. Centuries at home against weaker test opposition really don’t tell us much.
The other thing is England’s advantage, of course, is that we’ll be playing at home. This is obviously huge as it means we can prepare a conveyor belt of green-tops specifically for Jimmy and Broady. What’s more, everyone knows that touring teams traditionally struggle to play the moving ball. I’ve read that Cameron Bancroft will be warming up for the Ashes by captaining Durham – yeah thanks for that guys – but there’s no guarantee that he’ll make the Australian side. He didn’t exactly look brilliant in 2017 and Joe Burns is the man in possession.
Overall therefore, although I do think Australia will have a slightly better team on paper, in both batting, fast bowling, and spin bowling (don’t forget Nathan Lyon), England’s home advantage balances things up rather nicely. What’s more, my gut tells me that England have more X-factor players who could rise to the big occasion.
Yes, I know that Ben Stokes’s reputation somewhat exceeds his actual achievements in the test arena, but he’s still an immensely talented cricketer who will be desperate to make his mark after missing the last Ashes series in controversial circumstances. My gut tells me that this will be Stokes’s Ashes. In the same way that 1981 belonged to Botham and 2005 belonged to Flintoff. It would be one hell of a story.
James Morgan
Written in collaboration with BetSafe
Buttler was leaving his crease. Batsmen really shouldn’t leave until they know the ball has left the hand..zero excuses and any bats leaving the crease deserve to be out
“Heaven knows who’s going to bat in England’s top 3”. Well exactly. It’s not impossible that 50-over World Cup success might influence selection. Therefore predictions are incredibly difficult this far ahead. It would be interesting to analyse the options though. Rory Burns is probably safe unless he scores nothing in county cricket. Jason Roy may well be asked to open. Lord knows how that will go. Ollie Pope has put down an early season marker already. (Hmm, all Surrey players.) James Vince will probably score a hatful in the Championship to tempt the selectors once again. As for Jennings and Denly I would be surprised if they are seen again in the Test arena.
I fully expect Australia to win, probably narrowly. It’s hard to feel confident about England’s attack compared to the Aussies. Bowlers win matches.
“How are our players going to successfully transition from white ball mode to red ball mode in such a short space of time?”
Yes, it’s going to be difficult for them to adjust from the higher ODI scores to lower Test scores. A scratchy 75 will suddenly be a good score after blasting all those 150s.
BTW Johnson averaged 35 with the ball last time the Ashes were in England and the tail got plenty of runs off him (Ali averaged 37). England’s spongy pitches negate short stuff against the tail in most circumstances. Also, Bancroft didn’t look anything special against England but he was batting well in SA just before he got banned and was scoring some good runs in tough conditions.
There’s only been one away win in an Ashes’ series since 2001. The away side need to be massively superior to negate home advantage. Australia’s batting looks too brittle to me and there are problems with their bowling (Starc never seems fully fit, Hazlewood and Cummins have little experience in England, there will be a microscope on the condition of the ball).
When the John Player league was going and the same team played county and limited overs cricket there was no issue, even though the 40 over Sunday game was often in the middle of county match. Players play so much white ball stuff these days, much of it intermingled with red ball I don’t see the problem, especially now as red ball game is played with near white ball mentality anyway.
The problem with Ashwin”s actions for me is that he’s as good as dummied to bowl because he’s in his delivery stride and gone back to the stumps. A bit different to the previous one where Buttler had stolen a yard before the got to his delivery stride.
Technically he’s within his rights but where does this stop – are we OK with a bowler dummying a bowling action, not releasing the ball and breaking the stumps to try and catch a batsman out?
Reminds me of rugby when they outlawed the scrum half dummying a pass from the base of a scrum to draw a penalty. Was within the laws but not the spirit.
I would change the law from release of the ball to when a bowler’s into his delivery action / lands a foot in front of the bowling crease or similar. Seems fair to me. I’d also then forget about this tradition of giving the batsman a warning. If he’s trying to gain advantage then he’s fair game.
You gain a lot of distance with your ‘when the front foot lands’ theory.. a batter could be a metre or two down.. that’s stealing yards
Jut stay in your crease until you know the ball is released, if you gamble by not watching.. then you’re taking a chance.. so be it
Really is no excuse other than laziness and trying to steal a march on the fielding side or a run.. aka.. cheating
I quite agree, added to which, Buttler ‘has previous’.
Well we’re paying for the neglect of Test cricket by the ECB and the promotion of white ball cricket. However we have also fallen into the trap of believing that success in one translates into success with the other. Fans were seduced by this fallacious reasoning. Hence a long parade of selecting white ball hitters. Jason Roy would be in that tradition if selected. Even I know how to get Roy out and I just watch the game. Test cricket requires a special mindset of player one who can accelerate and one who can dig in. He has to read all kind of pitches and all kinds of conditions. And better still he has to build partnerships and not neglect who is at the other end because Test cricket is a Long Game. The dropping of a batsman like Bell after a poor season is indicative of the impatience and infatuation with short term returns. You don’t have to work for a Test innings you just have to express yourself! Even in that year Bell played a crucial role in winning the third Ashes Test at Edgbaston which turned the tide. Since then the arrogant philosophy of The Hundred has taken over and there are now questions about the preparation of our 50 over side heavily reliant on belter pitches for batsmen. Incidentally Bell was so dominant as a batsman in the 2013 Ashes that he was the difference in our 3-0 victory, a Series also packed with excellent bowlers and flakey batsmen – Bell excepted. We’ve been looking for his replacement ever since. If he wasn’t injured he might have been in contention. Last season he was back to his best. Unlike Cook who was always nurtured through his poor seasons Bell was dropped and all his experience with him.
I do feel it’s something of a make or break season for Stokes, as since his epic double hundred in South Africa he’s mostly flattered to deceive. I believe he has talent and application. To me he just seems lost on how to combine the two effectively, both as bowler and batsman. He certainly has the raw talent to compare with Botham and Flintoff, but as yet to dominate a series.
It’s also a make or break for Roy, if he’s to make a test player. Let’s hope Graham Thorpe’s influence can give him some staying power, and improve his shot selection. He could be the most important selection this summer, given how little obvious alternatives there seem at present.
The non-striker should be vulnerable to being run out from the moment the bowler begins his run-up or bowling action until he has let go of the ball.
What could be simpler then “don’t leave your crease until there is daylight between the ball and the bowler’s hand?”
He’s a good player and appears to be a nice chap – but why exactly is 37 year old Peter Trego playing for MCC against Surrey?
Trego has been extremely critical of the ECB on Twitter too in the past. He’s quite a good bloke to follow.
Sad to hear that Bruce Yardley has died.
Yardley made 50 off 29 balls against Roberts, Garner and Croft in 1977/78, an Australia record for many years. The battering he took so infuriated Jeff Thomson he bowled what those who experienced it (including Viv Richards and Tony Cozier) rate the fastest spell of bowling they ever saw. Alas, like may West Indies’ Tests of the 1970s, there doesn’t seem to be any TV footage of the match.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/17128/scorecard/63207/west-indies-vs-australia-2nd-test-australia-tour-of-west-indies-1977-78
1) zero sympathy for Buttler, he’s old enough to have leaned the Laws.
2) this could be an excellent Ashes as neither side is dominant. I hope, for the good of the game, that it sizzles.
3) Trego – ridiculous
4) Yardley – sad.
Not only is Buttler “old enough to have learned the laws”, he has been “Mankaded” before so he is a very slow learner.
Stokes is nowhere near as good as Botham, and probably short of Flintoff at his best. Good yes, but hasn’t really done a lot of late has he?
Ashes? If it’s dry and got in July/ August the Aussie bowlers will run through us. But crowding 5 Tests into barely 7 weeks with a wet August then drawn for certain.
I love Freddie and didn’t see beefy but imo, Stokes is better at batting than Freddie but miles below at bowling. Sadly, Freddie has that spell where both were decent but always was there or there about swish the ball.
Stokes is over rated and isn’t consistent .. certainly isn’t consistent enough to really command a spot on one suit only .. even as an all rounder, Woakes seems to actually be better
On Mankading: Change the law so that the non-striker CAN’T leave their crease before the ball leaves the bowler’s hand. If they do, the bowler can stump ’em. Simple. No subjectivity; no controversy.
If James Pattinson is fit (admittedly that’s a very big “if”) the bookies may have to adjust their odds.
I’m not sure Pattinson would be first choice ahead of Starc, Hazlewood and Cummins. There’s also Jhye Richardson who is one hell of a propsect. Richardson recently dislocated his shoulder so he may miss the World Cup but I imagine he might be back for the Ashes. I’d put all these guys ahead of Pattinson at the moment, although I do think that Pattinson is a very good player.
I don’t think he would be first pick either but if he gets a chance I reckon he could be a match winner. He’s only played 17 tests but he has 70 wickets at a strike rate of 47. I actually rate him higher than both Starc and Hazelwood (not that my opinion matters).
Pattinson is certainly in the selectors minds, and I think he has picked up a county contract to keep him firmly in the running. He is more than likely, at the very least, get picked for the Australia A tour to the UK pre Ashes. Let’s not forget he also has 1st class 50’s to his name and regularly bats as high as 4 for his State in the Sheffield Shield (as we speak, he scored 23no in Victoria’s 1st innings and 3-30 off 10 overs in NSW 1st innings in the Final). He is quicker than Starc, is a better bat than Cummins, just his injuries could stall him as some of you have pointed out. Richardson is very quick, can bat as well and highly rated. I would have Pattinson as a bolter for the Ashes, Richardson is a cert.
One selection I would like is Handscombe to be the WC keeper (he is scoring good runs at the moment), leave Karey out, which then provides a spot for Warner or Smith. Australia’s ODI team are on fire at the moment and they have selection issues most countries would dream to have.
I think the toss may have a great bearing of this season’s ashes as the Aussies have a much more destructive bowling attack. I can see us being rolled over if we have to bat last, despite our famed ‘deep’ batting order. Certainly the Aussies will be confident after performing well against India and with Warner and Smith back in favour their top order batting should be stronger than our fragile alternatives. I would be in favour of a Cook return just for this series if he’s batting well for Essex. It’s not really the series to blood untried youngsters or reintroduce previous failures like Vince and Ballance, but what alternatives are there?
Have a sinking feeling that the Currans will be picked ahead of the likes of Woakes, they clearly being flavour of the month with our great leader. The most interesting development could be influence of the appointment of Giles, who is clearly now more his own man than when he first went into administration.
Ashley Giles gives his first interview as Comma… an exclusive to Paul Newman and the DM.
“‘As a country we’re talking of a similar scale to 2005 if we could win the World Cup and Ashes this summer”.
There will be 7.5m watching the denouement of either of these?
Difference being this side is crap, Aus are crap and barely anyone gives a crap.. let alone there isn’t any of the current lot to “like”
A few thoughts on your (excellent) piece. Ashwin: I fear that the money in the IPL (and elsewhere) may be encouraging players to “bend the rules/spirit of the game” in a way that players in some other sports (football, rugby) do. Hope I’m wrong.
“Fighting fire with fire” reminds me of “Malcolm Devon” in the West Indies.
I make England slight favourites in the Ashes, because Australia can’t play the moving ball. Also, Warner and Smith are going to cop a lot of abuse. And rightly so.
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