Can Three Players Change Everything?

Sam Curran, Jofra Archer, and Jack Leach. These are the three cricketers we’re pinning our hopes on at Lord’s. They’ll have to shake up the team, raise morale, and give Australia’s batting (otherwise known as Steve Smith) something new to think about.

Confident? I wish I was. Personally I’m not even 100% convinced that the first of the three will play. Archer will surely replace Jimmy Anderson, Leach will replace Moeen, but Ed Smith might want to cling on to Joe Denly. The management will ultimately make the decision but there might be pressure from the chairman of selectors. Denly is one of his favourites and dropping him after a couple of games isn’t the best look.

However, if it was up to me then Curran would play. He’s often a lucky charm for England, he’ll probably score just as many runs as Denly anyway, and he might create some rough for Leach to bowl at. We’ll ignore the fact that he’ll also create some rough for Nathan Lyon too … for now.

Although I don’t particularly rate young Sam as a bowler his record in England is pretty good. He’s got something of a golden arm – it only takes one ball to get Smith out remember – and he might do what Broad, Woakes and Stokes failed to do in Birmingham: get this specially produced Dukes ball to actually swing.

I also believe that variation improves attacks even if five seamers are unlikely to achieve what four cannot. A left-arm seamer is always a handy asset for a captain to have up his sleeve. The angle might play a few tricks with the batsman’s mind. And it forces them to keep their footwork precise or get trapped LBW.

Curiously Archer is the new player England supporters have most confidence in – even though he’s the only debutant of the three. I think most people expect Jofra to provide the kind of cutting edge we’ve lacked for years. Is this fair? Probably not. But this is international sport and expectations are rarely rational.

England desperately need Archer to hit the ground running (… or should that be ambling?) He’ll just have to cope with the pressure, not to mention the Lord’s slope. The good news is that the opposition already respect him as a cricketer and this should give him confidence. He certainly won’t get the Usman Afzaal treatment from the straight shooting Aussies.

Jack Leach, on the other hand, seems like exactly the type of cricketer the Australians will target. He’s a good bowler in my opinion but he doesn’t exactly look like your prototypical international athlete. The Aussies might see him as Daniel Vettori light. And they’re bound to go after him. He’ll no doubt get a few verbals too – to which he should respond by politely pointing out the aesthetic frailties of his opposite number.

I think it’s important that we keep our expectations for Leach fairly low in this game. I’ll simply be happy if he can do what Moeen couldn’t do at Brum: keep some semblance of control. There are quite a few left-handers in Australia’s line-up and Lord’s isn’t his favourite ground. He’s probably not going to take a shedload of wickets.

So what do you think? Can these three guys make all the difference, change the mood, dismiss Steve Smith, and help England to victory? Will be you making a free no deposit bet on us levelling the series at 1-1? Because let’s face it. England need to get a result in this game.

Although a draw wouldn’t be the worst result in the world, a loss would be catastrophic. We’d need to win the three remaining tests to get the Ashes back. And we’ve got about as much chance of that as David Warner being announced as the new spokesperson for B&Q.

What we’re all craving is a win. A victory to ease our anxiety and set the Ashes up beautifully. But will this materialise? My head says no but my heart knows to expect the unexpected when England are playing test cricket. We often play well after a dispiriting defeat when the doom-mongers are most vocal.

The thing that worries me, however, is that this game is at Lord’s. Australia have a pretty good record at the home of cricket whereas England’s record is mixed. Can we reverse the trend? We won in 2009 I suppose. I just worry that the Aussies winning at Edgbaston was like Alan Border’s team winning at Headingley in 1989. It gave them a huge boost and made them believe.

If I recall correctly we didn’t get Steve Waugh out until the third test. Whatever damage Steve Smith did in Birmingham (and probably will do in this next test) at least we’ve already dismissed the blighter twice. It is possible. We’ve just got to stop him scoring 150 before it happens.

James Morgan 

Written in collaboration with BetAndSkill

26 comments

  • Well I think the best we’re going to get at Lords is a draw. Nothing to do with the players, have you seen the weather forecast? Tomorrow looks a complete washout, with lots of rain around on Friday and Saturday. Of course weather forecasts can be as wrong as trying to guess what England’s top 4 will make, so we will wait and see.
    I’m not convinced Leach will do much, but hopefully he’ll tie up one end which Moen couldn’t. I think you are right James in that Denly will play and not Sam Curran, and that’s a big error but unsurprising. Archer has been put on a pedestal and it’s a long way to fall. Is he fully fit? Will he last 5 days? Hope so for his sake of nothing else.

  • I’ve seen no evidence that Denly is likely to get more runs than Sam Curran – the reverse, in fact! That Curran can also bowl left-arm swing is just a bonus – he must play.
    I was going to ask about the weather. The forecast for my end of England has rain in it every day for the forseeable future.

  • Archer looks to me like a bowler who likes the big occasion. If he is 100 per cent fit, he could have a big impact. Hopefully, he can bowl for the duration of the test.

  • We need a swing bowler to replace Anderson, not another seamer. Whilst I’m no fan of Curran as a potential matchwinner he’s certainly made of the right stuff, and as you say could score as many runs as Denly.
    After his batting exploits against Ireland Leach could also make more of an all round impact than Moin.
    Archer is a no brainer if he’s properly fit, question is who steps down. Maybe Woakes needs a break.
    Should be an interesting test if the weather holds as we can’t afford defeat. A draw would be ok though.

  • Even a draw would mean Aussie would only have to win one of the last three, which you’d bet on. Don’t think they’ll drop Woakes, unless he’s not fit, Lords is his best ground. But who knows what the pitch might do – Lords wickets have not been very good this summer.

  • It’s not just about 3 players though, it’s about the 8 that are retained from Edgbaston raising their games (more specifically the batsmen outside Burns, Root and Stokes who didn’t perform getting their acts together)

  • Unlikely to apply for Lords but one of the advantages of Leach over Ali is that at CC he is used to bowling long spells and shouldering the expectations that come with being expected to bowl your team to victory on a turning pitch. His mind set is very different from a man who views himself as a batsman and not a frontline bowler (although to be fair since his recall Ali’s figures have been impressive).

  • Ah the fascination with Curran continues.. the next saviour of englsnd.. the next batsmen who can biff a few being talked up as some genuine test quality batsmen…

    Pull the other one.. he’s yet another stokes, Woakes, Ali .. question is.. are you willing to drop stokes or Woakes for Curran ??

    The problem isn’t the blowing anyway, it’s the fact we have massively over rated these batsmen and still continue that..

    Burns has 2 more tests until he’s had 10.. thsts a fairly good indication… he avg what?? 25??
    Roy.. has 8 more but doesn’t look anywhere close
    Root, diminishing returns as skipper and will decline the longer he’s at 3
    Denly.. lol
    Buttler… avg 35 from how many tests ????
    Stokes avg 35 from how many tests??
    Bairstow avg keeper and avg 35 again from how many tests ??

    These are batsmen who are 21 either… they are in their prime .. and still can’t avg 40+ which really is the bare minimum to be called a test match batsmen

    Stop over rating players and call this team, this management out on it

    • There’s technique and then there’s grit. Ssm is unusual in that, in contrast tto other batsmen, he seems to have both…

  • None of England’s batsman, top 7, average over 37. What Sam Curran lacks in experience he makes up for in enthusiasm and a lot more grit than Bairstow, Butler, Moen and Denly put together, journeymen the lot of them. He’s 20, give him a run in the side-oh he did virtually win two tests last year as well. Stokes is probably the second best bat in the side and I’d stick Foakes in. Why do they refuse to play the best keeper in the country? His average is better than Bairs tow as well. The cupboard isn’t bare, what about Sibley and Northeast? Too late now, lose or draw this and the Ashes have gone.

  • The best keeper in the country is Cox.
    I would play Currans ahead of Denly as I like his positive attitude and frankly England is short of that at the moment.

  • Apologies for being off-topic, but cricket at the Olympics is seriously back on the agenda with India at last WADA compliant and women’s T20 in the 2022 Commonwealth games.

    Just don’t fall for any claims this is about growing the game. It isn’t. The 2028 Olympics are in L.A. and the ICC want to get a foothold in the USA TV market. The USA as hosts would qualify automatically. The format will be all-important and 8 teams playing each other like in the recent WC may well be the one they want because India would have 7 certain games. A large part of the agenda here is to get the Indian TV market interested in the Olympics. It could be T10 or even. heaven help us, the T16.66.

    • This is good news.

      I don’t mind the T10 as a bit of fun, Maybe it could have been used instead of T16 next year if the ECB wanted a fun format. But I think as people have said the ECB wanted to invent a new format.

  • Saw an excerpt from Sky’s cricket analysis of this present test team led by Atherton and Warne. They must have been reading this blog, as all the batting frailties culminating in having only Root with a test average of over 40 were discussed as though this pair were saying something original. It just shows how reluctant the ex players are to attack the structure of the game that has caused this and put some pressure on the establishment to at least consider a rethink. I guess we have to get a pasting in this series before that happens, and even then I’ve no doubt the usual suspects will remain unchallenged. I know the fans have always been at the bottom of the heap in sport but there wouldn’t be any point to any of it without them.

    • Much as I disliked E W Swanton (quite a lot as it happens) he felt it was his duty to tell it like he saw it, so he
      didn’t hold back in criticising players and management.
      Today’s journos and pundits seem reluctant to do so for fear of becoming personas non grata and thereby excluded from cosy little chats with the establishment.

      • It is strange on Sky particularly that even the likes of Botham seem reluctant to get to grips with the issues that seem patently obvious to anyone who has watched the game over the last few decades. There’s endless debate but it all seems pretty tame, as you’d expect with Gower at the helm. Willis has been given the ‘disgusted of Tonbridge Wells’ job, but as he is pretty tedious to listen to and is a fast bowler giving advice to batsmen no one takes much notice. He’s become something of a figure of fun to vent spleen without effect. Even Boycott seems watered down when punditing on TV. Imagine what the likes of Trueman and Laker would have said commentating on test cricket today.
        Given the journalist penchance for stirring I don’t get why Sky would feel threatened by their employees criticising the establishment, as they are in a position to influence the ‘great and the good’ and what other comparable media outlet does the game have?

  • Roy out already. Another Surrey player being ruined by idiotic England selection. No Curran, hope Archer can take some wickets.

    • Not surprised there’s no Curran as more rain is forecast, which will affect the outfield for most of the game and you can’t really swing a wet ball. It could well nullify Archer as well as bounce will be hard to come by.
      It means Stokes will have to bowl proper overs again, which for me can only be a good thing as he’s been used as a Batsman who bowls a bit for too long. After all he’s supposed to be an all rounder.

    • I don’t think anybody overrates this England test side. Everyone seems to agree our red ball batting is at an all time low, with precious little on the horizon to give us much optimism for the future.

      • Umm, so why do I read and hear about how great the following are..

        Bairstow
        Stokes
        Buttler
        Roy
        Curran
        Ali

        All at some point over the last 2 years have been called ‘quality’ or ‘world class’.. Bairstow isn’t a good keeper and isn’t that good at batting yet peoooe want him as opener.. at 3.. at 4.. at 5.. thr guy literally is dog toffee hence averaging 35

        Buttler.. yet another who only avg’s 35

        Stokes.. lauded as great but avg what.. 35…

        Ali.. how many times has we read about him opening.. or at 3 etc.. thr guy has never ever ever been a test batsmen for Christ sake

        So.. yes.. this side has been over rated

        Hell, people now want Curran because he ‘has fight’.. don’t care that he’s another hitter who bowls medium dobblers .. apparently he now ‘has the technique’ to be a test batter for Christ sake

  • You would have thought that after Leach ‘s 92, that up himself Bairstow would have at least trusted him for a few overs instead of playing a stupid shot. Archer, well beat the bat a few times, but didn’t get a wicket. Why didn’t Woakes take the new ball? Looks a below average score on that track, but let’s see what the Aussies do.

    • I can understand Bairstow’s approach as the new ball was due, the prospect of Cummings & Hazelwood with a new cherry against Leach is not pretty…
      Agree totally that Woakes should have taken the new ball.

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