World T20 Preview – Australia and South Africa

A few days ago I was waxing lyrical about India’s batsmen. Although their seam bowling isn’t the strongest, their batting experience, depth and flair make them big favourites for the World T20. But who are the nearest challengers?

I’m afraid it’s not England – the mere suggestion that England might triumph is enough to give most people a laughter-induced hernia – but fortunately a couple of other sides look good enough to give India a run for their money. Today I’m going to look at these other teams.

It’s no surprise that the XXXX guzzlers and the Biltong munchers are the tournament’s second favourites. If they hit form over the next few weeks, I can see either side lifting the trophy. Having said that, both teams have flaws that could sabotage their chances.

Let’s look at the Canary Yellows first. Like India, their strength is in the batting. There’s plenty of firepower there. Finch, Watson, Warner, Smith and Maxwell can score extremely quickly and they’re all experienced campaigners in the T20 format. The Aussies also bat quite deep and have some pretty useful pyrotechnicians down the order – Faulkner and Hastings being prime examples.

However, I’m a little unsure about their bowling. In fact, I can see a few of them going the distance quite spectacularly. Faulkner, Hastings and Mitch Marsh bowl at a pace that’s ripe for destruction. They’re not quick and they’re not slow either; think Chris Woakes a year ago. I’m not saying these guys are bad bowlers by any means (they do have some skill) but I don’t think they’ll worry the best batsmen.

The problem with Australia’s attack is there’s no real mystery. I quite like Coulter-Nile and Hazlewood but Australia don’t have any genuine pace (although the former can crank it up a bit). They also lack a decent left-armer, and most importantly of all they don’t have a quality spinner. Glenn Maxwell is ‘ok’ but he’s not going to win many games with the ball. The leggie Adam Zampa has been fast-tracked into the side to offer some variation, but he’s very wet behind the ears. It’s a bit of a push to expect him to dominate world class Asian batsmen in their own backyard.

Although the Aussies have just beaten the Saffers 2-1 in a warm-up series, I actually think the Proteas are a slightly better team than Australia. They have class in all departments: the attack will be led by Dale Steyn and Kagiso Rabada, and ably supported by the likes of Kyle Abbott. The South Africans also have Imran Tahir, whose international T20 record is incredible: 37 wickets at just 16 with an economy rate of 6.7. Let’s face it, if the Saffers can afford to leave out Morne Morkel then they’re in a good place.

South Africa’s batting is also strong – at least at the top of the order. AB de Villiers and Hashim Alma are two of the best batsmen in the world. End of. Quinton de Kock is also one hell of a player. Meanwhile, Faf du Plessis has finally started to score some runs again.

The problem, however, is South Africa’s middle-order. JP Duminy continues to tease but delivers little truly substantive; David Miller has shown flashes but finds himself in and out of the side; while Farhaan Behardien has done little to justify his place in the squad.

The Saffers might have to rely on Chris Morris and David Wiese to provide late fireworks, but are these two good enough with the ball? It won’t be easy for South Africa to select their best, balanced XI.

I’ll be looking at the other teams in the coming days, particularly the West Indies, New Zealand and England. But for now, how do you expect the Aussies and South Africans to fare? If India don’t manage to win on home soil, do you think one of these two sides will? Assuming they can get past the mighty Oman of course.

James Morgan

PS Occasional TFT guest writer Phil Ryan has started a blog at www.sgtcookieblog.wordpress.com. Feel free to check it out.

16 comments

  • Despite beating England recently, I don’t really rate South Africa’s T20 side as being that far ahead of England.

    Aus and India have similar batting lineups, Aus have the better pace bowlers and India have the better spin attack. On these pitches, the better spinners should make the difference.

  • 4 out of the top 6 lowest odds for bowlers to finish with the most wickets are Indian, but only 2 out of the top 8 batsmen. What does that tell you about their relative strengths?

    • Maybe it’s because the Indian batting is so strong that the likes of Raina and Dhoni won’t need to bat much! There are no restrictions on batsmen (all the bowlers bowl 4 overs) so I imagine every team’s top 3 will have a much better chance than most of finishing as top run scorer. Basically, I don’t think the odds for leading run scorer in the tournament is necessarily a fair reflection of who the best batsmen in the tournament are. A quick 30 at the death can be more valuable than a slow 50 at the beginning.

  • It’s difficult to see past India in their own backyard (and with pitches they’re – ahem – used to). You’re going to need batting pyrotechnics, and some canny spin bowling. Australia have the batting, but possibly not the bowling. SA have the bowling, but I’m not sure about the batting (AB’s T20I numbers are nothing like his IPL numbers, as shown on Cricinfo today). My own “outside bet” would be West Indies. Plenty of batting pyrotechnics, even without Pollard (Gayle, Charles, Samuels, Lewis, Bravo, Sammy and Russell can all hit a long ball). Badree will be difficult to get away too. They can bat deep and still have a good bowling attack too. Another possible outsider would be New Zealand. Munro and Anderson are explosive, as just demonstrated in a warm up game against Sri Lanka.

    • I’d love NZ to win it but with Vettori and McCullum gone from the ODI WC, their seamers badly out of form recently and no experienced spinner I can’t see them getting out of the group.

      If they are to do well, Ish Sodhi is going to be crucial. He flummoxed the Aussies in the last ODI in NZ and has a bit of Imran Tahir about his method.

    • I’m not entirely convinced by South Africa’s bowling. Tahir is over-rated – he’s no better than Rashid.

      • Tahir has more wickets, a better average and a better economy rate in T20Is than Rashid.

        His average is almost exactly half Rashid’s (15 to 31).

        • 23 games vs 12 games is hardly a significant sample size. You can’t judge anything on less than 50 overs of bowling – some spinners get through that in a single test match.

          Helpfully, they’ve both played a reasonable number of T20 games from which we can compare: 119 vs 112.

          Tahir has econ of 6.9 and SR of 18.2, Rashid has econ of 7.3 and SR of 18.0.

          So virtually identical. Tahir maybe marginally shades it on the superior economy rate.

  • Australia have less chance then most. Absolutely horrific against spin.
    Won’t get out of the group as it includes India & Pakistan. New Zealand have a better chance by beating Pakistan and going through

    Any challenger if Pakistan are to inconsistent will have to come from our group.
    England if we get on a roll (and we have the 2 hardest fixtures first, so will need to) can cause a surprise, but the main dangers will be South Africa. They have all bases covered

  • Not quite so sure I agree with your assessment of Faulkner, James. He’s got a very good change of pace and has been an awkward person to get away in limited overs cricket, however I’m with you overall that the Aussies lack of quality practitioners of spin is likely to be their achilles heel and that their pace bowlers will probaly not really be that effective there.

    I could also see their batsmen not playing spin so well either, as Neil suggests.

    • I like Faulkner as a cricketer, don’t get me wrong, but I’ve always thought of him as a support bowler rather than a spearhead likely to change games. His batting is more than capable of changing games though. I’ve seen him play some incredible innings.

  • In a parallel universe far, far away, a BBC type channel have exclusive coverage of this cricketing revelry and a slightly less amusing version of me is getting right excited by the prospect.
    Meanwhile back on the planet God probably modelled on a Cricket ball, picking the seam for the Himalayas etc I couldn’t give a stuff. That is until the wonderful enthusiasm and knowledge of this article prodded me from my grumps. And that was before I got to the PS.
    Many thanks James for both. And thanks to anyone who takes the time to dip in and out of ‘Sgtcookieblog’ I hope you find it entertaining.

  • Why is everyone so scared of India..

    Dhawan isn’t all that, Reina is scared of anything that isn’t full.. Rohit or whichever is a slogger .. Dhoni past it.. Hardly that good, it’s almost like people are playing names over the players. Kohli is t that great as much as e media and Indians bull him up.

    Sadly, other teams aren’t good enough to find them out though . Still, it’s only 2020 so just enjoy it for what it is, hit and giggle

  • Let’s just hope there’s no more rain because, as we’re now discovering, this tournament has been organised with no reserve days except for the Final.

    What an complete and utter clusterf*ck.

  • Aussies will be going very well to get out of their group. Very well, and I don’t expect it.

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