Aside from the organisational cockups at the beginning, and the fact that associate nations effectively had to qualify for the tournament twice, this has been a pretty good World T20 thus far. We’ve had some very close games, the odd upset – Afghanistan take a bow – and some big teams going home early.
Of course, it always helps if the team you’re supporting does well. My favourite football World Cup has always been Italia 90 because England were just a Chris Waddle penalty away from winning the thing (I’m sure we would’ve beaten an uninspiring Argentina in the final). Similarly, I remember the 1992 cricket World Cup fondly because England were the most consistent team. I’m enjoying this WT20 more than usual because England have performed beyond expectations. It sure beats the humiliations we’ve grown accustomed to.
The big question is what’s going to happen next? Will England’s journey end on Wednesday, when we play the team of the tournament thus far, or will the ‘dream’ live on? I call it a dream because England’s progress seems a tad unreal and otherworldly. Winning WT20s is always very pleasant, but it’s hardly the ultimate goal or ‘dream’ of English cricket followers.
Nevertheless, Wednesday’s semi final is still a very big game. Can we win? Sure we can. The Kiwis have done very well so far, but T20 is an unpredictable format and it’s hard for teams to keep winning without the odd hiccup. An optimist might suggest that New Zealand are due a failure. Have they peaked too early? New Zealand will be favourites but England have a good chance too.
The problem, however, is that England have probably been a bit lucky so far. We certainly don’t look like the finished article. We were poor against the West Indies, bowled appallingly (but batted beautifully) against South Africa, got ourselves into a dreadful hole against Afghanistan, and almost blew what looked like an impregnable position against Sri Lanka. If New Zealand might have peaked too early, England most certainly have not.
Naturally my main worry is our bowling. Spinners been vitally important in the tournament thus far and England’s spinners have both been poor. Meanwhile, although our seamers have done well at times, the likes of Jordan and Stokes are hardly the most consistent performers. At some point, this lack of quality will probably cost us.
Fortunately however, T20 is a batsman’s game and contests are often decided by which team’s big-hitters manage get their eye in. When you see what’s happened to bowlers like Dale Steyn in this tournament, one could argue that a bowling attack’s pedigree is meaningless once a world-class player like Gayle, de Villiers, Kohli or, dare I say it, a Root or Buttler get going. Perhaps the number of match-winning batsmen in England’s XI offsets our lack of match-winning bowlers?
The fun thing about T20 is that nobody really has the answers. There’s always shed loads of analysis – how can there not be when coverage is so extensive? – but in the end nobody really knows what’s going to happen. Predictions almost seem futile.
Having said that, this is a cricket blog and wildly inaccurate stabs in the dark make the blogosphere go round; therefore I’m not going to let the sheer futility of making predictions prevent me from making even more of them. So here we go …
My best guess – and I admit this is a complete guess – is that the winners of this year’s tournament will come from the second semi-final between India and the West Indies. Why? Because it often comes down to experience in the end. Nobody has played more T20 cricket in this part of the world than India (obviously), and the West Indies XI is packed full of short-format specialists who make a living on the T20 circuit.
Does this mean England or New Zealand can’t or won’t win the final? Absolutely not. I just feel that India, despite all the pressure, are still the best team in the tournament. Meanwhile, the West Indies looked a class above England in their meeting a couple of weeks ago.
The one thing in our favour, however, is that England aren’t really under pressure like the other teams. India have to carry a huge burden of expectation and the Windies will know this is probably the last hurrah for many of their ageing stars.
As for New Zealand, I’m not sure how they’ll be feeling. They’ve reached the semis for the first time in ages. I suspect that both England and the Kiwis will simply be happy to make it this far – which will make them more relaxed and perhaps therefore more dangerous. The psychology of T20 is a fascinating one. Who would’ve predicted that little Leicestershire would win our domestic T20 tournament three times? Sometimes it’s good to be the underdog.
James Morgan
I said a few minutes ago on the semi-final thread that I worry that at least two of our bowlers and one of our spinners at least will likely go for a large number of runs. So I guess that is not too different from you.
I suspect the Kiwis will still fancy stifling England’s batting with spin, but Adam Milne is a good pace prospect but England did actually play spin a bit better against Sri Lanka. Again England will possibly hope to bat second and then see if they are really within range.
I’m inclined to agree that the winners of the second SF look the most likely winners of the tournament.
That India have got this far with only Kohli and Dhoni looking in any sort of form among their batsmen is remarkable. Their spinners haven’t been that outstanding either – Jadeja has been solid but Ashwin had a mare against the Aussies. Quietly and largely unnoticed, Nehra and Bumrah have been having excellent tournaments and have much to do with India still being afloat. I’ve never agreed that T20 is mainly about batsmen. It’s also worth pointing out that, for all the talk of home advantage, no host nation has yet won the competition.
West Indies’ spinners have actually been more impressive – Benn is one of the most economical bowlers in the competition and Badree is one of the top wicket-takers (and is especially impressive given how much he bowls in the PP). WI have had two low-pressure games and haven’t looked too great in them. Whether they’re biding their time or have lost a bit of momentum – who knows? Their lower middle order (Bravo, Sammy, Brathwaite, Russell) looks very powerful on paper – but hasn’t actually shown much form.
Very little to choose between the two teams!
Can England go all the way? I’ll present Match Of The Day in my skidders if they do. And if Gary Lineker will let me.
When we fail – which we might not, I grant you – you can bet Morgan will be playing the youthful inexperience card. Like these players have never played an international before.
Talking of Morgan, he’s started doing that thing with his voice that C**k has largely managed to dump. You know, that thing where his voice rises at the end of a sentence as if he’s asking a question instead of answering one. Oh well, whatever.
Yeah, England need the bowling to come to the party against NZ. Guptill and Williamson will just adore any pies being thrown their way. Can’t picture NZ’s bowling going missing tomorrow.
Fail? That’s a brutal word.
They’ve already confounded most critics by reaching the semis so the tournament will already be marked down as a success.
This young inexperienced team and let’s be honest that’s what they are now in a world semi final and will believe they can win it.
1 positive for England is Delhi and knowing the conditions, NZ have been excellent in the spin dept, but Delhi may blunt that a bit.
I think most people agree that England will be better off chasing, but after the last 3 overs from Plunkett, Jordan & Stokes in the last match they may now have a bit more confidence in defending.
I make NZ slight favourites purely because of how impressive they have been and will be full of confidence.
England have an issue with Morgan and the spin dept, and will need to find an answer in order to progress. They’ve found the answers so far and I wouldn’t bet against happening again.
“This young inexperienced team and let’s be honest that’s what they are”.
England’s team in the last match had played a combined total of 1125 T20 matches between them. Only three players (Root, Jordan and, perhaps surprisingly, Plunkett) had played less than a 100 career T20s. That’s more experience than the NZ team they’re likely to face (combined T20 total of around a 1000 matches and only three players – Guptill, Munro, Taylor – who’ve played over a hundred).
The age difference between the two teams isn’t that great. NZ’s probable team is a grand combined total of six years older than England’s (300 to 294). NZ have three players aged over 30 to England’s one but the three youngest players on the park are also likely to be Kiwis (Milne, Sodhi, Santer).
Finally, and it appears to need repeating, England selected this “young inexperienced team”. Nobody forced it on the selectors.
Good Stats, I assume it’s because we play a lot more domestic T20’s?
Of course replacing Topley with Plunkett has done a lot to raise the experience factor, although it is surprising he’s played less than 100.
Is that all T20’s, or T20 Internationals? The difference matters.
Re Cook and his voice rising at the end of the sentence, did he spend any time playing club cricket in his youth in Perth? Or otherwise it can only be a feature of spending his time in non-Estuary Essex!
After the first game and a half the only Dehli any of our boys were likely to see on semi final day was in their own local supermarkets. 230 unbelievable runs later… I don’t want to make any glib comments about names on trophies… because I think New Zealand will be too good. Hope all enjoy the occasion by whichever way you follow it.
One odd stat (courtesy, naturally, of Andy Zaltzman) is that no team has ever gone undefeated in a World T20 (which tends to show how unpredictable the format is). I agree with a lot of other commentators that England have done well to reach the semis (it certainly makes a refreshing change from the World Cup debacle). Oddly, though, I don’t really care whether England beat New Zealand (this may change once the game starts!). I like the way NZ play their cricket, and having a “non-Big Three” team in the final would be one in the eye for the ICC. For similar reasons (and because cricket needs a strong West Indies), I want West Indies to beat India, and clearly they have the players to do so (though India also have top class batsmen, especially Kohli, who is phenomenal).
I’m not sure that Andy Zatzman’s stat proves the unpredictability of T20 – or that the T20 WC has been held in an era without any clearly dominant side in the format. I’d say the fact that no team has won it twice is mostly down to the same reason.
Five ODI WCs have been won by unbeaten teams. Four of those were by truly great teams who were massively dominant in the game (WI in 1975 and 1979, Australia in 2003 and 2007). SL in 1996 are the only exception.
That Stat (no team has won WT20 without losing a game) has its equal in the Domestic T20.
Up until the start of 2015, Lancashire had the best percentage win record of any team in England, but hadn’t ever won the trophy.
Then last year, sneaked in to the QFs in 4th place on NRR having lost 6 (and one NR) from 14 games, and won the trophy.
Indeed – and look at Notts every year. Star studded line-up, play like a million dollars in the group stages, huge Friday night crowds, enthusiastic and vocal support, take more travelling fans to Derby than the home team get, and then find a way to get knocked out. In 12 years they’ve still only reached finals day twice. For a team of their size and calibre, that’s incredibly disappointing.
Mind you, they’re still one of the best “test match sides”.
They can go the whole way. Depends on the pitch though. If it’s flat, they are more likely to beat NZ. If it’s a turner, makes the game more even.
Depends on the pitch for this match I meant to say.
I think they can win the whole thing.
Go England Go
Desperate defeat for the ladies. Looked to be cruising then collapsed.
Good game so far, looks like we’ll be chasing around 160.
I know nothing at all about cricket it would appear. I must be outside it. Off to the final in style. Well done that team. Playing like that they deserve a silver medal at least.